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RESEARCH 02 — GROWTH & FUTURE DEMAND

Growth requires infrastructure.

This page tests the second half of the concept: whether population, advanced manufacturing and large computing loads are creating a credible need for additional water, power and infrastructure capacity.

Research rule:Document announced and planned growth without treating every announcement or interconnection request as guaranteed future demand.
FACT 01
$265BTSMC Arizona planned investment
Supported

Arizona is attracting semiconductor investment at historic scale.

TSMC says its Arizona investment has expanded from $12 billion to $265 billion, with current plans including six logic fabs, two advanced-packaging facilities and an R&D center. Intel separately says it is investing more than $32 billion in two new leading-edge factories and modernization at its Chandler campus.

What it means

Advanced manufacturing is becoming a larger part of Arizona’s infrastructure picture.

What it does not prove

Announcements and planned investment do not guarantee that every facility will be completed on the announced schedule.

TSMC Arizona ↗Intel Arizona ↗
FACT 02
19 GWAPS uncommitted queue
Supported

Large-load interest is significant relative to today’s electric system.

APS reports a 2025 peak demand of 8.7 GW, a 2035 forecast of 12.0 GW, and a 19 GW uncommitted queue of potential large loads. The Arizona Corporation Commission reports SRP serves 59 large-load customers totaling nearly 7 GW.

What it means

Utilities must plan for the possibility of much larger industrial and computing loads.

What it does not prove

A queue is not a forecast. Many proposed projects may be delayed, downsized or never built.

APS large-load planning ↗ACC workshop ↗
FACT 03
7.7 → 9.8MArizona population, 2025–2060
Supported

Arizona’s official projection still shows substantial population growth.

The Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity projects the state to grow from about 7.7 million residents in 2025 to about 9.8 million in 2060 — an increase of roughly 26%.

What it means

Future infrastructure planning must account for communities as well as large industrial customers.

What it does not prove

Population projections are scenarios based on assumptions; actual growth can differ.

Arizona OEO projection ↗
FACT 04
Growth needs capacityWater + power + infrastructure
Supported

The research question is not whether growth is good or bad — it is how new demand will be served.

Utilities and regulators are already evaluating generation, transmission, interconnection rules and cost protections for large loads. Save the Southwest uses that planning reality to ask whether additional water and power capacity should be built alongside future growth.

What it means

New demand should be modeled explicitly instead of silently loading it onto today’s system.

What it does not prove

These facts do not establish the exact amount of future water or power capacity that should be built.

ACC large-load workshop ↗APS resource planning ↗
SOURCE LIBRARY

Verify the evidence yourself.

These links open the original publisher or technical source rather than a Save the Southwest summary.

TSMC ArizonaTSMCCurrentOpen ↗
Intel in ArizonaIntelCurrentOpen ↗
Large Load/Data Center WorkshopArizona Corporation CommissionApril 2026Open ↗
Data Centers: Planning for Big Energy NeedsAPS2026Open ↗
Population Projections 2025–2060Arizona Office of Economic OpportunityDecember 2025Open ↗
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