SSAVE THE SOUTHWEST← Evidence Library
RESEARCH APPENDIX

Go behind the analysis.
See the audit trail.

The appendix holds the deeper material behind the six research questions: where the evidence stands, the complete source library, the key assumptions register, calculation methodology, archived documents, and a record of meaningful revisions.

Evidence statussupported, preliminary, assumptions and open questions
21sources currently indexed
Traceablefacts link back to original publishers
Expandableassumptions, calculations and archived documents can grow here
01 WHERE THE EVIDENCE STANDS

What we know. What we're still testing.

This is a snapshot of the concept today. Each item links back to the evidence library, where the underlying sources and assumptions can be examined.

SUPPORTED

Strong evidence or established precedent

  • Colorado River reservoir storage is historically low.
  • Desalination is proven technology.
  • Water substitution has Colorado River precedent.
  • Arizona utilities are planning for substantial prospective electricity-load growth.
PRELIMINARY

Credible evidence, more validation needed

  • Sea of Cortez desalination at much larger scale.
  • California substitution opportunities.
  • Flexible desalination plus product-water storage economics.
ASSUMPTIONS BEING TESTED

Values used to test the concept

  • 3 MAF/year strategic water target.
  • Low, base and high construction-cost assumptions.
  • Future power-generation mix.
OPEN QUESTIONS

Important issues not yet resolved

  • Final conveyance corridors.
  • Binational and interstate agreements.
  • Environmental mitigation requirements.
  • Financing and ownership structure.
These labels can change.As stronger evidence is found, assumptions may become supported—or be rejected. The model should change with the evidence.Examine the six research questions →
02 MASTER SOURCE LIBRARY

Every source. One place.

Search and filter the primary documents, technical references, utility planning materials and company disclosures used throughout the evidence pages.

21 sources shown
Government / Public Agency2026

Future Colorado River Operations — Decision Documents

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

Used in: Colorado River & Reservoirs

View original source ↗
Government / Public AgencyHydrology through 2023

Post-2026 EIS Scoping Presentation

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

Used in: Colorado River & Reservoirs

View original source ↗
Government / Public AgencyProvisional through 2024

Colorado River Natural Flow & Salt Data

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

Used in: Colorado River & Reservoirs

View original source ↗
Government / Public AgencyData through 2024 / reports updated 2025

Upper Colorado Consumptive Uses & Losses

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

Used in: Colorado River & Reservoirs

View original source ↗
Government / Public Agency2025 report available

Lower Colorado Water Accounting

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

Used in: Colorado River & Reservoirs

View original source ↗
Government / Public AgencyApril 2026

Large Load/Data Center Workshop

Arizona Corporation Commission

Used in: Growth & Future Demand

View original source ↗
Utility2026

Data Centers: Planning for Big Energy Needs

APS

Used in: Growth & Future Demand • Power & Energy

View original source ↗
Government / Public AgencyDecember 2025

Population Projections 2025–2060

Arizona Office of Economic Opportunity

Used in: Growth & Future Demand

View original source ↗
Government / Public AgencyApril 2020

Binational Study of Water Desalination Opportunities in the Sea of Cortez

IBWC / U.S. & Mexico

Used in: Desalination & New Water • Water Exchanges & Delivery • Economics & Environment

View original source ↗
Government / Public AgencyCurrent archive

Minute 323 research library

IBWC

Used in: Desalination & New Water

View original source ↗
Government / Public AgencyFacility reference

Yuma Desalting Plant

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

Used in: Desalination & New Water

View original source ↗
Technical / ResearchTechnical reference

Desalination energy technical review

NREL

Used in: Desalination & New Water • Power & Energy

View original source ↗
Government / Public AgencyYuma program

Desalting Services

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

Used in: Water Exchanges & Delivery

View original source ↗
Government / Public AgencyYuma program

Groundwater & Salinity Management

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

Used in: Water Exchanges & Delivery

View original source ↗
Government / Public Agency2017 / archive

Minute 323 and treaty minutes

IBWC

Used in: Water Exchanges & Delivery

View original source ↗
Government / Public Agency2016

Water–electricity integrated resource management

U.S. Department of Energy

Used in: Power & Energy • Economics & Environment

View original source ↗
Government / Public AgencyApril 2026

Large-load cost and infrastructure workshop

Arizona Corporation Commission

Used in: Economics & Environment

View original source ↗
03 KEY ASSUMPTIONS REGISTER

What the model assumes — and what still needs proof.

These are working inputs used to test the concept. They are not presented as established facts. Values will be refined as engineering, legal, environmental and economic evidence improves.

How to read this register: each assumption shows its current working value or range, its evidence status, why it matters, and where it affects the feasibility model. “To be determined” means we have intentionally not invented a number before the evidence supports one.
Strategic water targetWaterASSUMPTION
Working value

3.0 million acre-feet per year (about 2.7 billion gallons per day).

Why it matters

Sets the scale used to test whether new supply could materially reduce pressure on the Colorado River system.

Evidence / basis

Strategic relief target for scenario testing — not a claim that the basin is exactly 3 MAF short.

Used in

Water portfolio, desalination scale, energy demand, infrastructure sizing and economics.

Desalination energy intensityWater + PowerPRELIMINARY
Working range

3.0–4.5 kWh per cubic meter for seawater reverse osmosis, before conveyance and pumping.

Why it matters

Strongly affects annual energy use, operating cost and required generation capacity.

Evidence / basis

Technical literature and operating experience; project-specific design could move the value within or beyond this range.

Used in

Power model and project economics.

Mexico / Sea of Cortez substitution volumeWater ExchangesOPEN QUESTION
Working value

To be determined.

Why it matters

Determines how much new coastal water could replace Colorado River demand through a binational arrangement.

Evidence / basis

Binational desalination studies and existing treaty mechanisms establish areas for analysis, but do not establish the proposed project volume.

Used in

Water portfolio, exchange accounting and conveyance planning.

California substitution opportunitiesWater ExchangesOPEN QUESTION
Working value

To be determined.

Why it matters

Could allow coastal or other new supply to replace some Colorado River demand without moving every new gallon inland.

Evidence / basis

Requires detailed legal, operational and agency-specific analysis.

Used in

Water portfolio and Colorado River demand-reduction scenarios.

Product-water storage for peak shiftingPower + EconomicsASSUMPTION
Working range

Scenario input: 0, 4, 6 or 8 hours of peak electrical load shifted by producing and storing freshwater earlier.

Why it matters

Tests whether storing finished water can reduce peak electrical demand and some battery or firm-capacity requirements.

Evidence / basis

Operational concept to be validated against storage cost, plant flexibility and grid pricing.

Used in

Power sizing and operating-cost scenarios.

Future generation mixPowerASSUMPTION
Working value

To be optimized across firm generation, solar, storage and flexible water-system loads.

Why it matters

The mix affects reliability, capital cost, operating cost and emissions.

Evidence / basis

No specific new-reactor, solar or storage configuration is treated as a committed project.

Used in

Power capacity and economics.

Pipeline distance, elevation and pumpingInfrastructureOPEN QUESTION
Working value

To be determined by corridor engineering.

Why it matters

Elevation gain and route length can materially change energy use, pipe sizing, construction cost and environmental impact.

Evidence / basis

Candidate corridors require engineering-grade route and hydraulic analysis.

Used in

Conveyance energy, infrastructure cost and environmental review.

Capital and operating costsEconomicsASSUMPTION
Working value

Low / base / high ranges to be developed by asset class rather than one project-wide rough number.

Why it matters

Allows sensitivity testing and prevents false precision before project-level engineering exists.

Evidence / basis

Will combine comparable projects, current industry data and engineering estimates as they become available.

Used in

Cost per acre-foot, annual operating cost and financing scenarios.

Financing and ownership structureEconomicsOPEN QUESTION
Working value

To be determined.

Why it matters

Interest rate, asset life, public/private participation and revenue allocation can materially change delivered-water economics.

Evidence / basis

No financing structure has been selected.

Used in

Annualized capital cost and cost-per-acre-foot calculations.

Environmental mitigation allowanceEnvironment + EconomicsOPEN QUESTION
Working value

To be determined.

Why it matters

Intake, brine management, habitat, rights-of-way and other mitigation measures are real project requirements and costs.

Evidence / basis

Depends on siting, technology, permitting and environmental review.

Used in

Project economics and feasibility conclusions.

04 CALCULATIONS & METHODOLOGY

Show the math—not just the answer.

This section documents how evidence becomes a model input and how model inputs become conclusions. As the feasibility model matures, the formulas, unit conversions, low/base/high cases and sensitivity tests will be recorded here.

FACT
→
ORIGINAL SOURCE
→
DATE + DEFINITION
→
WHAT IT MEANS
WHAT IT DOESN'T MEAN
→
MODEL ASSUMPTION
→
CALCULATION
→
CONCLUSION

Calculation rules

Keep units visible, distinguish annual energy from peak power, avoid mixing incompatible water-accounting definitions, and show the formula behind important derived numbers.

Scenario ranges

Use low, base and high cases when a value is uncertain. Sensitivity testing should show which assumptions materially change the result.

Sources stay with the fact

Important inputs link directly to the original publisher. A source is used only for what it actually establishes.

Uncertainty stays visible

Supported facts, preliminary evidence, working assumptions and open questions remain labeled differently throughout the model.

05 ARCHIVED DOCUMENTS & REVISION HISTORY

Preserve the evidence. Record what changed.

The research should remain auditable over time. This section will preserve eligible source documents and record meaningful changes to assumptions, calculations and conclusions. We will not claim an archived copy exists until it has actually been preserved.

Archived Documents

Status: Building the archive.
Original publisher links remain available in the Master Source Library. Archived copies will be added here as documents are preserved and licensing permits.

Revision History

September 2026 — Research framework established.
Created the evidence-status framework, Master Source Library, Key Assumptions Register, and calculation/methodology audit trail.

← Back to Research Questions